Having been a trainer and driver of racehorses; having witnessed 1000’s of races over the course of the past 30 years, anything can occur before the race starts. With this knowledge, here are some tips that may assist you in making a good bet, while using your brains instead of your gut reaction.

Although ante-post racing has been a huge market with betters or punters, you should be very careful when placing your bet before race day. Here is my thought on this subject. I never bet on a horse before the horses warm up or parade. I want to see if the horse I am betting on is sound e.g. healthy, not lame on the track. Thoroughbred horse racing is completely different from standardbred horse racing. 

Thoroughbreds parade for approximately 10 minutes before the race. Watch for traits indicating lameness. Your horse should not exhibit any limping or favoritism to one leg. White foam, or sweat, observed on the horse’s neck is indicative of nervousness or the horse being “washed out.” Washed out is a term used for a horse that may not race well due to excessive nervousness. A positive indicator that you have a good horse to bet on occurs when the horse “empties out,” another term for “pooping” before the race. I find this to be an advantage, as the horse is relaxed and free of excessive bulk, thereby permitting him to run more quickly. 

Harness horse racing is different, as you are able to watch the contenders warm up. Typically the horses are warmed up 60 minutes before the actual race time. This is a perfect time to watch your horse travel around the track. You can see if they are limping or sore. If you observe any incongruence in their running pattern do not bet on them. 

An aspect to look for in both thoroughbreds and standardbreds, when determining your winning horse is, “equipment changes.” This alteration in equipment can change the way the horse runs that day. For example, if you see a horse go from blinkers to no blinkers, that horse may be prone to the distraction of his competitors and may try to outrun a horse when they see a competitor coming up, on the outside or inside of the track. There are so many variations of changes of equipment. The track must list equipment changes week to week. Make sure, if you are a serious better, that you check for changes and evaluate how this may alter the outcome of the race.

The last variance I would like to cover is track condition. Imagine you bet on a great horse that cannot lose, in your mind. On race day it rains and the track is muddy. This horse does not like the mud. Those betters who have followed the conditions as it pertains to their winning horse know about this disadvantage and pass on the horse. If you placed the bet days earlier, without this knowledge, you may have bet on a great horse that cannot triumph in mud. This great horse loses and you lose your money. You could have prevented this by not making your early bet. On the other hand, your identified winner may be a horse that loves the mud and under such conditions, may be your winner. You have no way of knowing this if you have not vetted your horse, checked the conditions, examined for equipment changes, and personally seen him parade or warm up. 

As you can see, I never bet ante-post for these reasons. A common adage which I frequently refer to is, “You can beat a race, but you cannot beat the races.” However, that has never stopped me from taking the time to exert my knowledge and pick my winner! Horse racing especially races like the Grand National are exciting events that combines skill, talent, and of course - Luck!

Noel Glynn’s John Smith’s Grand National candidate Becauseicouldntsee faces a desperate race against time to be fit and well in time to take his chance in the Aintree marathon after undergoing surgery on a hind leg that was damaged after his most recent outing when finishing second at Leopardstown, writes Elliot Slater.

The eight-year-old Beneficial gelding (generally on offer at 25/1 for the Grand National in the ante-post lists), sustained a cut to his hind leg that later became infected when some bony tissue grew over the wound. Glynn, who was not initially concerned by the injury, then took the decision to have the wound treated with surgery, but there has to be a big doubt as to whether he can recover full fitness in time for the big race on April 9 and anyone looking to place a Grand National bet should remember this.

It would be a big shame if Glynn’s talented stayer was to miss his chance as he ran a cracker at Leopardstown to be second to the useful Majestic Concorde in the valuable Paddy Power Chase, a performance that marked him out as a serious candidate for Liverpool. Generally a very sound jumper, Becauseicouldntsee had ended last term with a great effort in finishing a brave second to Poker de Sivola in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, after which connections hatched the plan to bid for the Grand National with the still relatively unexposed young horse.

Glynn believes his charge has a 50-50 chance of recovering in time to make the big race, pointing out that despite the injury the gelding never missed a day’s work and retains good basic fitness. He had originally planned to have a run at Cheltenham, but now, if all goes well with the recovery, Becauseicouldntsee will go straight to Aintree without a prep race.

Trainer Alan Fleming is clearly a disappointed man after seeing his stable star Starluck finish a well beaten third behind reigning champion hurdler Binocular in the William Hill Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park, writes Elliot Slater. 

Last season the grey ran an absolute blinder to make the high-class Go Native pull out all the stops (Binocular back in third) in the Christmas Hurdle, eventually failing by only a short-head to land the Grade 1 event, but this time around, on ground that his handler feels was rather more testing than had been anticipated, the six-year-old was never travelling well enough to get into the race and make his presence felt. 

Fifth in last year’s Champion Hurdle (behind Binocular) and a good second on his reappearance in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newbury, where he gave the smart Peddlers Cross a good race, Starluck’s best form has regularly been on a decent surface so the glue-like conditions at the Sunbury track last time out would appear a valid excuse for a below-par effort and horse racing fans should remember this.

No firm plans appear to have been made just yet as to where owner Andrew Wates’ classy sort will go next, but he returned home from his Kempton effort in decent shape, ate up and appears none the worse for the outing. Starluck’s Champion Hurdle odds doubled after his defeat and he is now available at up to 50/1 in the horse racing betting odds to improve on last year’s performance, but it has to be assumed that he would be an unlikely runner at Cheltenham if there was plenty of cut in the ground. In any case, it would not surprise in the slightest to hear that Fleming might prefer to keep him fresh and wait until Aintree where underfoot conditions are invariably more suitable for the Key of Luck gelding.

The mighty Denman, a horse with a huge fan club who has endeared himself to the racing public for a number of seasons, is back in full training and beginning his build-up to what is likely to be his last attempt to win the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup for a second time, writes Elliot Slater.

The 11-year-old gelding, winner of the 2008 renewal when beating the awesome Kauto Star by seven lengths, finished second to his stable companion 12 months later and occupied the same position last year when putting in another sterling effort, but found the new kid on the block, Imperial Commander, too good for him.

Despite advancing years, Denman continues to produce top-class performances, and the winner of 14 of his 22 career starts and over £1 million in career prize money is still a serious force to be reckoned with and will not be going to Prestbury Park on March 18 just to make up the numbers or for old time’s sake and this is reflected in the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting.

Despite the crushing burden of 11-12 Denman ran a terrific race on his seasonal reappearance when attempting to land the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury for the third time, but in the end found the concession of 26lbs to the smart Diamond Harry just too much, eventually finishing an honourable third. That run proved that Denman is still very close to his best ever form and Nicholls has decided not to attempt to have his horse ready to run in a prep race before Cheltenham, but this time to concentrate on having him 100% fit to run for his life on the final day of the four-day Cheltenham 2011 extravaganza.

A best-priced 8/1 third favourite behind Imperial Commander (4/1f) and Kauto star (5/1), Denman will remain a popular choice with his adoring legion of fans.

This year’s Stan James Champion Hurdle, the feature on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March, is shaping up to be one of the most wide open for years with a handful of worthy candidates all bidding to get their hooves on the trophy, writes Elliot Slater.

Bookies and those regularly placing a cheltenham bet are finding it hard to separate the three market leaders; last year’s winner Binocular, the 2010 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Menorah, and Irish star Hurricane Fly, all having the form in the book to warrant worthy consideration as a betting medium. Those that fancy Nicky Henderson’s Binocular to follow up his impressive win in the race last year will not have been unduly put off by his defeat to the smart Peddlers Cross in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newbury in November on his seasonal reappearance. He always needs a run or two to reach concert pitch and will be primed to peak at around ten past three on March 15.

Menorah has gone from strength-to-strength this term, giving masses of weight away but still winning the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle in tenacious fashion on his seasonal bow. Even better was his disposal of Cue Card and Silvanicio Conti in the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham, a win that confirmed him very much a front-runner in the race for this season’s championship.

 Ireland’s principal hope this term appears to be Hurricane Fly, already the winner of two Grade 1’s this term – at Fairyhouse and Punchestown – on both occasions proving too strong for his old rival, the smart Solwhit. With other contenders including the aforementioned Peddler’s Cross, last year’s Champion Hurdle runner-up Khyber Kim, the rapidly progressive Oscar Whisky, and the smart Starluck, this year’s Champion Hurdle promises to be truly a race to savour.

Ahead of every big race there is always a flurry of activity surrounding jockey bookings and this Sunday’s feature Grade 1 William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton Park is proving no exception, writes Elliot Slater.

Noel Fehily, who was expected to ride hot favourite Kauto Star due to the continued absence of the 10-year-old’s regular pilot Ruby Walsh, (sidelined since early November with a broken leg), shocked the racing community on Wednesday by standing himself down from the ride, explaining that his damaged wrist hasn’t sufficiently recovered for him to be sure he could offer maximum assistance from the saddle.

Fehily’s absence has opened the door for 15-time champion jockey and recently voted ‘BBC Sports Personality of the Year’ Tony McCoy, to come in for one of the best ‘spare’ rides of his illustrious career. McCoy had actually been booked to partner Jonjo O’Neill’s Albertas Run, but has been released from that commitment, allowing him to step into the spotlight as Kauto Star bids to land a historic fifth successive King George VI Chase.

Those assessing the cheltenham odds  have acknowledge the fact that Irish challenger Forpadydeplasterer, runner-up on each of his last seven outings, (many in Grade 1 company), is set to step up to three miles for the first time in his career and the Tom Cooper-trained gelding will now have the assistance of the fully fit Robert Thornton, after his regular pilot Barry Geraghty was claimed by his ‘guv’nor’ Nicky Henderson for Riverside Theatre. Paddy Brennan has been confirmed aboard Nacarat, a horse who has enjoyed a number of high profile performances at the Sunbury track, including winning the 2009 Racing Post Trophy and finishing fourth to Kauto Star in the ‘King George’ 12 months ago. 

As expected, Richard Johnson will continue his winning association with Philip Hobbs’ Planet of Sound, but riders for the remaining runners will not be confirmed until the final declaration stage.

There is also expected to be plenty of turnaround before the cheltenham gold cup 2011 in March!

In declaring himself unfit to ride the red-hot favourite Kauto Star in Sunday’s William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day, Noel Fehily has lost the chance to ride the biggest winner of his career, but has definitely won the respect and admiration of the racing community, writes Elliot Slater.

Those looking at cheltenham 2011 tips know that it takes real guts and honesty to voluntarily stand yourself down from the biggest opportunity of your career, especially as a win on Kauto Star would have assured Fehily’s name would be guaranteed in the annals of racing history.

But since returning to race-riding recently, it transpires that Fehily has felt that has damaged wrist has not fully recovered and he does not want in any way to prove an obstacle to a historic success for one of the greatest horses of all-time. His magnanimous gesture will not quickly be forgotten, but it has opened the door for ‘BBC Sports Personality of the Year’ Tony McCoy to crown an outstanding 12 months, having been offered and having accepted the ride on the hugely popular 10-year-old, thus improving his cheltenham gold cup odds for success. 

McCoy had been expecting to ride the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Albertas Run, but has been released to partner the Paul Nicholls-trained champion who is generally an even money chance to land his fifth successive ‘King George’ (although sponsors William Hill go a standout 11/10), and surpass the record of four wins that he shares with the outstanding Desert Orchid.

The reaction to Fehily’s decision has been almost unanimous, with Paul Nicholls, Kauto Star’s owner Clive Smith, and most significantly the general public applauding the jockey’s honesty and selflessness in passing over such an outstanding career opportunity.

Racing and betting forums have been full of unusually complimentary remarks pointing out what a fine jockey Fehily is, and what a gentleman he has proved himself to be.

This is one of those rare occasions when I fully share the sentiments of the ‘racing forum’ online communities.

Grand National winning jockey Bob Champion (aged 61) is going to ride at Aintree again, this time his ride will not be over the fences but as part of a charity event to raise money for cancer patients and the Injured Jockeys Fund.

Bob who beat cancer shortly before riding to victory on Aldaniti in the 1981 National is attempting to ride at all 60 of the UK’s race courses including two that Bob never got the chance to ride at during his career.

Champion knows he must work hard on his fitness next spring if he is to achieve his goal of reaching all 60 racecourses inside 60 days. Champion is encouraged in his ambition by the knowledge that Aldaniti’s 1987 walk from Buckingham Palace to Aintree, with 250 different riders, raised more than £750,000 for charity!

Personally I can’t wait to see Bob in the North West, hopefully I will be able to support him at either Chester of Bangor On Dee race courses.

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